Observations on My Vacations 2: The Continuing Dominance of the Automobile

Posted on January 20, 2012 by Simon

One day when I was down south for the holidays, I drove my rental car from my parents’ place in Rolleston to my sister’s in Kaiapoi. The plan was to take my nephew and niece for a swim and maybe to a movie.

The pool in Kaiapoi  was closed so we drove out to Rangiora. From there we headed across to the Shirley mall, targeting a showing of Puss in Boots. It turned out the cinema was closed by the earthquakes, so instead we had lunch at the mall, then headed back to Northlands mall to catch The Adventures of Tintin (NB: may be a little scary for some younger children). After that, we drove back to Kaiapoi, and from there I drove the rental back to Rolleston.

The day was a sweeping, somewhat dizzying tour across northern Christchurch and its environs. I sat back while my sister navigated 80km/h ring roads, wide boulevards and spacious, multi-storey car parks. I conclude: the geography of doing things in Christchurch is a series of bubbles linked by automobiles.

It’s a contrast to Wellington, where the geography is stacked vertically and for most of the places I have to go the quickest way to get there is walking, with the bus a fall-back option if I really need to get over the other side of town.

There’s some kind of path-dependency going on here, but I’m not sure what it is. Is everything desgned around cars because things are so far apart, or is the other way around? At any rate, there’s mutual reinforcement — and, as the previous post pointed out, this evolving urban shape has been cemented by the earthquakes.

I can kind of see how this state of affairs has evolved. A factor in the South Island, even more so than  in the north, is that once you have a car there’s much else that is opened up: back country, mountains, coastlines, resort towns. As reported in my previous post, I made flying visits to Queenstown and Hanmer Springs, and was able to appreciate that an automobile not only gets you to the main destination, but from there to the remote spot at the start of the track or the climb. It’s also an extremely useful mobile storage device once you’ve checked out of you accommodation.

I also understand that another fundamental factor that drives the sprawl is the yearning for a back yard.

Yet, though this may have come about because of choices, the default settings now close them off. An increasing amount of urban planning doesn’t even consider the non car-driver. For example, as Riccarton Mall has slowly eaten up the surrounding streets, it’s become gradually more impregnable to pedestrians. On foot, you can’t really get in from the west, and from the south you have to negotiate a car park with no apparent pedestrian entrance.   The same is true in my home town of Rolleston, which has mushroomed from a tiny village to a bustling district centre of 8,000 in less than 15 years. There’s a single new commercial space right at the centre of a very spread-out residential area. It’s a given that most people will “drive to the shops”. There’s no safe and obvious way for a pedestrian to enter some of the spaces there either.  You don’t quite get arrested for walking yet, but in some environments it’s not far off

Christchurch apparently used to be known as the “city of cyclists”. I remember seeing a photo of from the 1960s or 1970s with a great phalanx of cyclists pushing off from an intersection either in the early morning or late afternoon (I assume they were commuters).  The place is still as flat as it’s always been, but these days peddling two wheels is a lonely and not particularly safe trade.

Even if this were sustainable, it would be really unfortunate, and it’s not even inevitable. You can have the “freeways between suburban pods” urban model and still make the in-between spaces much friendlier. Designate the corridors along which the “inter-hub” traffic can move swiftly; then in the “local” bits, reduce the speed limit, narrow the streets, put in dedicated bus and cycle ways. A classic example is Amsterdam, where you can still drive your car in the city — you just have to give priority to the cyclists and the trams. But even Brisbane, a truly enormous sprawl that’s not known for urban sophistication, has dedicated busways, kilometres of cycleways, and a walking path along much of the length of its river. There are other ways to do thing

Posted in Canterbury, New Zealand, Transport, Wellington | Leave a comment

Observations on My Vacations, 1: The Transformation of Christchurch

Posted on January 13, 2012 by Simon

I’ve just spent approximately three weeks in the South Island, including Christmas, New Year, two weddings and trips to Hanmer Springs and Queenstown. As usual, this has inspired me to have partially-informed opinions on things, about some of which I intend to write a series of posts.

The posts will be, probably in this order:

  • The Transformation of Christchurch
  • The Continuing Dominance of the Motor Vehicle
  • The Cafeterisation of Provincial New Zealand

The Transformation of Christchurch

Any discussion of Christchurch these days immediately devolves to the series of earthquakes that have battered the area. This is fair enough, given the  human tragedy and unplanned destruction that has occurred. However, in the longer term, I think the earthquakes will be seen as accelerating a transformation that was already happening.

I visit Christchurch on average a couple of times every year, and have the opportunity to draw a contrast both with my more youthful memories and with Wellington. Every time, I get something of a shock at the sprawl, the acres of space dedicated to car parks, the aircraft carrier-sized big box retailers, Riccarton Mall slowly consuming the surrounding streets.

The days are long gone when Christchurch was an “English” market town ordered around its central square. Rather, it has become a loosely ordered regional connurbation that links  the port and airport with intensifying farming on the plains, giant malls, sprawling suburbs, clusters of services and manufacturing, and the satellite towns to the north, west and south that are gradually merging with the outer suburbs. Its role model is Auckland, and beyond that, the ribboned cities of the American west and south.

Public discussion of the “rebuild” of Christchurch has tended to focus on what might be made of the central city. But I think that’s something of a distraction. The earthquakes that have so undermined the swampy centre and east  have pushed traffic and activity to the west, onto the gravelly ground of the plains, ensuring that the city’s centre of gravity will ultimately settle there.

The string of further sizeable quakes that kicked off on December 23 have solidified this process. Already, ideas about the “rebuild” are being scaled down and there’s talk about the temporary “pop-up mall” in shipping containers on Cashel St becoming a semi-permanent feature.

There may well be something attractive to come out of a central city redevelopment  If the opportunity is not taken to create a space completely friendly to pedestrians and cyclists, there’s truly no hope for humanity. However, this is unlikely to be the city’s commercial  heart. To obtain any sort of insurance, permanent structures in the area will need to have the highest level of earthquake safety, making them expensive to build, own, and of course rent. The central city will be unlikely to be abuzz with small businesses; nor will it be a bohemian den of students and artists.

I can see it eventually becoming an “old town” of parks and gardens, some government services, boutique retailers,  maybe some bars and cafes. It should be friendly to tourists and local visitors alike. Hopefully there’ll be ruins that are preserved and turned into museums and memorials and the condemned land in the northeast will be transformed into landscaped recreational space. Meanwhile, the mallification of the city will continue apace, and it’s most dynamic activity will be based around distributed centres in Riccarton, Papanui, maybe Sydenham/Addington.

I actually like some of the longer-term changes that are in the works, in that they acknowledge what the city has become and make something coherent out of it. The new express route linking Rolleston with the southern motorway will make sense of the weight of population that’s shifted there and end the pretence that a country road gently working its way through the outer suburbs can support the roaring semi-trailers, the tourists and the burgeoning commuter traffic. The four-laning of Russley Rd and the proposed flyover at Memorial Ave will eventually create a genuine north-south bypass. These road systems should produce a better functioning regional hub that links the northern and southern hinterlands.

How sustainable this is going to be as oil gets inexorably more expensive, I don’t know. For that reason, but also because I’d just like to see it, I hope there are some plans for the parallel development of alternative transport options.  If the satellite towns are going to continue to grow, these could improve the viability of a commuter rail service along the existing lines. As new motorways are developed, this could create the space for protected cycle routes along the older roads. However, given the apparently universal assumption that everyone has a car and drives it everywhere, all the time, I’m not getting my hopes up.

Posted in Canterbury, New Zealand, Transport | Leave a comment

Birds of a Feather

Posted on December 17, 2011 by Simon

Since I’ve been living in the Northland/Kelburn area of Wellington over the past three years or so, it’s been my privilege to see native bird life return and flourish. The Karori Sanctuary (now renamed “Zealandia”) is nearby, and, as the birds have established themselves there and reproduced, they’ve naturally decided to extend their habitat to wherever they please.

When I first moved here I used to get quite excited about seeing the occasional tui. Despite being very vocal, they could be slightly shy. Now they practically own the place, chirping regally on bushes and power lines alike.

When trekking along the Karori ridgeline a couple of years ago with some friends, we spotted a kereru, or native pigeon, as we descended through some bush above Khandallah. It was the first time I had seen one in the wild: my knowledge of it mainly derived from the Department of Conservation “Kereru in Crisis” poster that graced my bedroom wall (Unless steps are taken to halt its decline, this magnificent bird will disappear from most forests on the mainland…).

Now, there are a couple of kereru that have found a niche about half way up Garden Rd, occasionally flapping their plump bodies between clumps of vegetation. The other day, one alighted on a branch of a bush barely two metres to my left as I was walking up the road. I quickly froze and was able to stand quietly watch it pecking away at some berries for several minutes.

Best of all, there are now at least two kaka that have colonised the area around the Thorndon cemetery. The kaka is a native parrot, a little smaller and slimmer than the kea, which lives in the lowlands and at medium altitudes. The only time I had seen kaka previously was on a trip to Kapiti Island, and I never thought that I would find them in my own neighbourhood. The kaka seems to be an incorrigible extrovert and a show off. On Kapiti Island there was one that happily landed on and climbed all over the visiting tourists. While the ones inhabiting the cemtery aren’t that tame, they are happy to make themselves visible. They seem to particularly like the big old pine and macrocapa trees, sitting in the highest branches and squawking or trilling before setting off on another strafing run across the cricket fields.

The presence of this native bird life is a source of joy for reasons I can’t quite articulate. Part of is that they are just more interesting and beautiful than the blackbirds and sparrows. But part of it is also something more complicated to do with renaissance and reclamation.

Posted in New Zealand, Outdoors, Wellington | Leave a comment

It All Fits Together, Somehow

Posted on December 13, 2011 by Simon

Jorge Castañeda warns that with its slide into ever greater inequality, the United States risks falling into the trap Latin American countries have found it so hard to scramble out of. It is different here, but you could also plausibly substitute “New Zealand” into that sentence.

Jeffrey Frankel summarizes the characteristics of the “resource curse” well known to development studies students and suggests both existing and untried strategies for escaping its worst effects.

Red Logix at The Standard, channelling Ross Taylor, has an excellent post on innovation, small business and interdependence in provincial New Zealand.

Posted in Development, Economy, Latin America, New Zealand, United States | Leave a comment

Inequality in New Zealand

Posted on December 7, 2011 by Simon

It’s interesting to see that this report from the OECD on New Zealand’s rising inequality has been getting some local media attention — although it had disappeared off the Stuff website by the end of yesterday. I’ve recently had conversations with several people — some foreign, some from here — in which I’ve claimed that “in the last thirty years Zealand has gone from being one of the most equal countries in the world to one of the most unequal developed countries”.  They’ve tended to raise their eyebrows dsay that they’re not sure that can be right.

In fact, New Zealand is now the eight most unequal country out of 22 listed in the OECD report — 6th out of 20 if you exclude middle-income Mexico and Turkey. But it has seen the most rapid rise in inequality of any OECD country over the past twenty years, with the Gini coefficient going from 27 to 33. Sure, we’re not at Latin American levels yet (Mexico is at the relatively equitable end in a continent where the Gini coefficient ranges from the low 40s to around 60) butwe’re heading in the right direction.

It should come as no surprise that most of New Zealand’s rapid increase in inequality happened from 1985-95, during the time of radical reforms. The Gini coefficient peaked in 2000 and actually dropped by 1 point during the Helen Clark years of 2000–08.

It would be interesting to see some more detailed analysis of the changes in income distribution in New Zealand, perhaps with a nice graphical display like this. To what extent is increasing inequality about the educated upper middle class surging ahead, and to what extent the top few capturing most of the gains? To what extent is it related to upwards distribution of pre-tax incomes and to what extent a more regressive tax and transfer system?

Posted in Development, Economy, Latin America, New Zealand, United States | Leave a comment

Just Follow Orders

Posted on December 4, 2011 by Simon

Here’s something that’s worthy of support for a number of reasons: Law Enforcement Against Prohibition, an organisation of US law enforcement employees opposed to the war on drugs.

The opening section of the article tells the story of Bryan Gonzalez, a Border Control agent who lost his job after expressing opinions in favour of decriminalisation to a fellow official. His termination letter said he held “personal views that were contrary to core characteristics of Border Patrol Agents, which are patriotism, dedication and esprit de corps.”

Translation: “What we expect from you is blind loyalty, measured by the extent that you support obvious stupidity”

Posted in Politics, United States | Leave a comment

In My Naiivety About These Things

Posted on December 4, 2011 by Simon

The way I understand Ricardo’s Law of Comparative Advantage, it goes something like this:

Consider two countries, England and Portugal. England produces wool and wine. Annually, England can make 400 bales of wool and 200 barrels of wine. Portugal is also in the wool and wine business, but the Portuguese are less efficient. They can only produce 100 bales of wool and 100 barrels of wine per annum. Nevertheless, England should concentrate on producing wool and Portugal on making wine.  Even though England is more efficient at everything, it should concentrate on what it is most efficient at, while Portugal should devote itself to its area of greatest relative efficiency (i.e. the thing it is least inefficient at compared to England).

We know this because some maths shows that such a strategy will lead to the greatest total combined output of both products. The two countries can then trade and, assuming the price system works well, they will both be better off than before*.

This is supposedly the closest that economics gets to a physical law, what economists cite when they’re asked to name something in their discipline that’s definitely true. It’s what smart people explain, speaking slowly and occasionally rolling their eyes, when naiive interlocutors wonder about the benefits of free trade.

But let’s look at how freer trade and increased specialisation could play out. Imagine that wool production in Portugal is undertaken by smallholders while wine is grown on estates owned by a landed oligarchy. After the Portuguese government enthustiastically embraces its new FTA with England, the sheep farming land is put into wine production and the former wool producers work on the estates.  However, despite the overall gains from trade, the estate owners see no reason to pay more to either the new or the existing workers. In fact, maybe they can pay them less, since now there’s little chance they’ll run off and become a small-scale wool producer. Later, some technological advances in wine production allows the Portuguese estate owners to increase production while laying off some of their workers. Fearful for their jobs, the remaining workers daren’t ask for any pay increases.

This looks like it could lead to things getting worse for the majority of Portuguese who aren’t wine estate owners. But never fear, an elightened Portuguese government ensures that the benefits of a growing economy are widely distributed. Having “grown the cake”, the government receives increased tax revenues, which it uses to provide generous welfare payments to unemployed workers and increase funding for education.

However, this government is voted out, as the opposition rails against the the “irresponsible bribes” to “unproductive parasites”.  Why should the wealth producers give up their hard-earned income to support those who aren’t contributing to the economy? Both the weathy wine estate owners and many of the embattled workers buy in to this argument.

This scenario is obviously simplified but may also sound rather familiar. You’d think that smart economists would factor in such changes to the political economy and would have done some serious thinking about how they could be addressed in the real world. You’d also think that in a democracy such changes would have to be thoroughly considered and negotiated before being accepted. But then, maybe I’m being naiive.

*If I’m working it out right, England could potentially end up with 450 bales of wool and 200 barrels of wine, while Portugal would have 150 bales of wool and 100 barrels of wine.

Posted in Development, Economy, Latin America, New Zealand, Trade, Uncategorized | Comments Off

Aconcagua Gear by Category #2 Head and Hands

Posted on December 3, 2011 by Simon

Here’s part 2 of my summary of different categories of gear I used on Aconcagua. Part 1 is here.

Head

For the trek in, you definitely need good sun protection, and a broad brimmed hat is preferable. I wore my trusty baseball cap with a buff arranged in Foreign Legion style to protect my neck. It wasn’t quite enough. Two members of the group had the integrated floppy hat and neck flap made Outdoor Research. These hats are far from stylish, inspiring both good natured ribbing and self-deprecation from their wearers, but seemed to work well. Recommended if you don’t mind looking like an eccentric scientist catching bugs.

A warm hat is another essential. As I’ve described elsewhere, I took two. The North Face fleece beanie later became a beloved item and was almost permanently attached to my head during this last winter in Wellington. However, on the mountain itself, my alpaca super-chullo, hand-produced in the village of Callalli in Peru, was unbeatable for warmth and comfort.

Hands

A lot of attention needs to be paid to getting the right mix of hand protection. As I found out on Nevado Ampato, if you can’t keep your hands both warm and usable, you become helpless pretty quickly.

The gear list recommended two pairs of liner gloves, fleece gloves, mountaineering gloves, and expedition mittens.

As my basic liner gloves I took Outdoor Research PL 100 fleece gloves. I can’t say enough good things about these gloves. They are warmer than you’d think, and are snug and stretchy, allowing good dexterity. After lots of scrabbling around with sharp rocks trying to anchor the tent I eventually destroyed the fingertips, but I made sure I bought another pair as soon as I got back to NZ.

I also took some Outdoor Research PL400 gloves, which are quite a lot thicker. These weren’t particularly useful, as they didn’t seem much warmer than the PL100s and weren’t water or wind proof, but still prevented me from doing much with my hands — I couldn’t even get my fly undone while wearing them. If I had my time over, I would take another pair of PL100s, some windstopper gloves, and/or a thinner pair of fleece or wool liner gloves.

For my mountaineering gloves, I had a pair of Outdoor Research Arete gloves. Mine were an older version than the ones shown in the link and didn’t have any insulation. I dispensed with the fairly useless factory liners and wore the outers over the PL100s. These provided adequate protection on the lower mountain when it was snowing, and they have a good idiot cord system. Starting over, I would prefer some gloves with insulation, which would work allow the option ofwearing them with thinner liners.

Finally, for the uber-warm mittens needed on summit day, I took the Black Diamond Mercury mitts.  These were plenty warm enough and have an austere yet cuddly feel which makes it a little disappointing that another high-altitude expedition or camping in Siberia would be the only other occasions I can imagine wearing them.

As noted elsewhere, I would also highly recommend having some chemical hand warmers, as no matter how warm your mittens are, there’ll be times you’ll need to take them off, and they may need some help to warm your hands back up.

Posted in Argentina, Latin America, Outdoors | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Election Reflections

Posted on December 2, 2011 by Simon

In the end it was about half way between the worst-case and best-case scenarios. Probably towards the disappointing end overall, but once the special votes are counted there’s even a slim possibility that the Maori Party may end up holding the balance of power.

The Guardian’s sports pages have taken to running a post format called “five things we learned from…” after a round of matches. In that spirit, here’s some thoughts on the elections in New Zealand.

People cared less this time (but why?)

After special votes are included, participation of registered voters will be something like 72 percent, compared to 80 percent in 2005 and 79 percent in 2008. That’s apparently the lowest turnout since the 1880s. There is plenty of speculation about the reasons for this relative apathy. Hopefully, some of the questions will be answered by some basic research. Some of it could be done fairly easily with summary data from the Census and Electoral Roll. Were the non-voters and the non-registered mainly young people, first time voters, those in particular geographical locations or socioeconomic strata? Or were they spread fairly evenly through demographic groups and classes?

Other questions would require more detailed research with a sample group. Were those who stayed away complacent National supporters? Left-leaning voters who felt it was a foregone conclusion? People generally happy with the state of things? Or the marginalised who felt that no party or politican spoke for them?

The polls were wrong (or were they…?) 

A series of polls in the last week of the campaign gave National an average 52 percent of the vote. That was at least 4 points too high, and nobody picked the surge of support to NZ First (except perhaps the last Roy Morgan poll). On the other hand, the polls average was pretty close to the share gained by Labour, the Greens, ACT and the Maori Party. How badly wrong you think the polls were kind of depends onyour interpretation of the result. How much of the shift to NZ First was from strategic voting by Labour and Greens supporters wanting to get another opposition party over the threshold (worse for the polls); and how much was from soft National supporters having last-minute qualms about an absolute majority (which would suggest the polls were closer to being accurate).

Someone needs to make the Winston Peters movie

This would be an epic Godfather-esque tale of vengeance. Returning from three years in the wilderness after being hounded out by a broad coalition of media and politicians, Peters has once again outmanouvered his enemies. I’d love to be a fly on the wall to see the respective expressions if Peters and Rodney Hide pass in a corridor somewhere.

The liberal right continues to flirt with oxymoron status

The long journey of ACT from a right-libertarian vehicle to a party for angry white men reached tis concluson with the vesting of its electoral hopes in noted social conservative John Banks, who during the campaign smacked down his nominal leader’s musings on cannabis law reform. In the aftermath of an election in which the party vote shrank to around 1 percent, Banks has been openly musing about merging ACT with the paleoconservative New Zealand Conservative Party.

My political education has advanced considerably since then, but what I wrote in a post six years ago still holds:

…across-the-board libertarian principles only seem to survive in
universities, pubs and other theoretical settings…there’s a mysterious process by which those who have to actually make policy see their social liberalism…rapidly eroded. 

I have a partial theory on why right liberalism tends to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. The profound inequalities created or exacerbated by right-wing economics in the real world ultimately have to be explained by blaming their victims. This leads inexorably back to tough-on-crime social conservatism, until this overshadows everything else.

Some people really don’t want to let FPP go

I have been astounded by the range of people, from Guyon Espiner on election night to John Key afterwards, who expressed puzzlement and dismay that after such a “resounding victory” by National, they only had a narrow majority. Either these people don’t understand MMP, or, more likely, they prefer not to. Forty-eight percent is indeed a high number for any individual party, but nearly all of the remaining votes went to parties that broadly oppose National’s programme (including, in theory, one of their likely coalition partners, the Maori party). Under a proportional system (news flash: we had a referndum on this and decided to keep it), the biggest player doesn’t get to wield absolute power.

Some of this attitude is also coming from people on the left worried about Labor’s position. Some sites have shown maps of New Zealand by electorate with only a few red dots in a “sea of blue”. This does not refer to the electorate results (Labour actually won 21 electorates, with a couple of others still in play), but to the party vote in each electorate. There have been laments that even in strongholds in Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin, Labour “lost” the party vote to National. However, in most of those places, the Labour and Green party votes together easily exceeded National’s. Granted the current high-tide position of National, the results need to be interpreted in the context of two strong parties on the left, one on the right.

More on that in another post.

Posted in New Zealand, Politics | Leave a comment

What’s At Stake in the New Zealand Election

Posted on November 25, 2011 by Simon

It should come as no surprise to anyone that I’d prefer to see some kind of left-liberal governmment in New Zealand. In an ideal world, it would:

1) Pursue energy, transport, and environmental policies that not only make New Zealand a more pleasant place to live in, but also help prepare for the inexorable increase in the price of oil over the coming years

2) Make a serious and constant commitment to reducing inequalities, as far as necessary through taxation and social services, but as much as possible through employment and wages

3) Wrestle with how best to manage New Zealand’s place in the international economy, exploring different options but maintaining 2) as a constant point of reference

4) Explain its policies in a way that respects the public’s intelligence. Be prepared to change its mind and admit it was wrong. Respect the various democratic processes and make more information publicly available.*

But that’s not going to happen. Instead, tomorrow’s elections offer only best and worst-case scenarios among a generally unappetising range of possible outcomes.

Best case scenario

National fails to win an outright majority. ACT and United Future lose their respective electorate seats. National forms a minority government and is forced to rely on the Maori Party plus perhaps some kind of abstension from the Greens in return for a few policy wins. Individual items of legislation require support from one or more of the other parties. Any asset sales are greatly scaled down and/or delayed. Welfare policy gets a little emphasis on Whanau Ora and a little less on bashing beneficiaries..

Worst case scenario**

National wins an outright majority, either alone or in tandem with ACT. Midway through the term they take a more ideological turn, perhaps associated with John Key stepping down, with cover provided by a second global recession triggered by chaos in Europe There are deeper and more rapid cuts in, or privatisation of, public services, with little mercy for anything that can be portrayed as involving minority interests or bureaucrats. Various labour and environmental protections are discarded as “unaffordable”. Scapegoating of the marginalised intensifies.

I guess by aroound 9:00 pm tomorrow night we should have an idea which way it’s likely to go.

* And it should give everyone a pony.

** In the event of a global meltdown, the best case scenario could easily turn into the worst case scenario, especially if the Government calls a snap election, arguing that being forced to relie on minor parties prevents it from “taking the necessary actions”.

Posted in New Zealand, Politics | Leave a comment